We write this piece in the aftermath of a convincing victory for Donald Trump in the US presidential election, with the Republican Party also having taken control of the Senate and the House of Representatives. Financial markets had begun to move in Trump’s favour...
“As long as the dollar remains in high esteem as a trade currency, America can continue to spend more than it earns. But when the day arrives – as it certainly must – when the dollar tumbles and foreigners no longer want it, the free ride will be over.” G. Edward...
“What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead.” These profound words, spoken by Nelson Mandela, encapsulate a truth that may resonate...
“Semiconductors are the silent driver of all the advancements in the digital world.” Morris Chang, founder of TSMC The second quarter was a tale of two halves, particularly in equity markets. Until mid-May, with investor sentiment buoyed by the prospect of cooling...
In recent memory, emerging markets have been somewhat absent from the equity market party. The benchmark equity index, MSCI Emerging Markets (MSCI EM), still sits some 15% below its 2007 peak. On the surface this makes sense, as investors in emerging markets must...
“Courage is willingness to take the risk once you know the odds. Optimistic overconfidence means you are taking the risk because you don’t know the odds. It’s a big difference.” Daniel Kahneman The year so far has seen incremental evidence pointing towards stickier...
‘Difference is the essence of humanity’1. As true today as it was in 1998, it can be said that without our differences, our social and professional lives are entirely predictable. Whilst this truth is rarely disputed, the ability to recognise it brings great...
“Success means being very patient, but aggressive when it’s time.” Charles Munger We finished the year with a significant shift in interest rate expectations, a central component of the financial system. With rates having risen substantially over the last two years,...
In November 2020, the global market value of negative-yielding bonds, which require their holders to pay for the privilege of owning them, reached 18 trillion US dollars. By January 2023, following an aggressive interest rate hiking cycle by central banks, that figure...
"Winning or losing of the election is less important than strengthening the country.” Indira Gandhi The third quarter in markets was characterised by a shift in focus from inflation to growth. Inflation data in developed markets, whilst still elevated, showed some...